Payroll figures will be released at 8:30 am. Although I don't trade on analysis of the data, I often find market moving numbers to provide a catalyst for entry. One must think of where the opportunity to surprise lies...

I'm seeing several potential trade setups, but continue to wait for the markets to tip their hand. After stopping out of Treasury bond futures (short), this signal is still considered valid...

By now, readers should know the way to trade September is the same way as any other month. This morning will knock commodities and bonds lower, while equities...

Trading is a game of acting correctly as second nature. As such, it helps to break things down so that you can remind yourself where your focus should be to "keep it simple". This is a theme I continually mention, as it's contributed more to my success than any other factor...

In my ongoing effort to demystify successful trading, I thought I'd share how I know to exit a trade, whether it's a winner or loser. As always, I'll keep it plain and simple:

I just covered my short bond position at a loss. The light volume of late summer has caused many conflicting signals and crosscurrents. I will look to re-enter on a new signal, possibly as soon as this week. The data reported this morning would typically cause stocks to stay weak...

So far, I'm content with what's on my plate. I booked profits on Corn futures yesterday, and initiated a short position in Treasury bonds, while "managing" my long gold trade. I don't expect the bonds to pay off immediately...

Of course I cannot know for sure if this is the bottom in commodities, and or the top in stocks, but I'm comfortable taking a stand here. As I often discuss, almost all asset classes are linked. For the past couple years, the JPY (yen) and the $CRB have been reliable indicators...

Let's get the FOMC decision behind us, so we can get back to "normal". The event has little significance this time, other than keeping most participants on the sidelines. I've reviewed certain major themes that have been getting tested lately (ie. the commodity bull), and they are basically intact. Even if commodities are "finished", it does not mean stocks necessarily go up..

There is a big difference between trading and economic analysis. My thoughts on the economy, the $USD, the national debt, and the credit contraction are somewhat gloomy...

It's premature to start buying stocks for a bounce, in my opinion. It appears I also covered my shorts too soon, although I've had a decent run lately. The "press" keeps reminding us that the $USD is oversold and about to strengthen...

As the big dominos of $125 oil, $4 copper, $6 corn, and $1,000 gold fall onto the market, raw-material producers enjoy record cash flows. The next domino is all the cash finding its way to companies that supply equipment, services, and infrastructure to those producers.

U.S. farmers will produce 10% less corn this year than they did a year ago, driving demand to a 13-year low and further enflaming global rhetoric aimed at diversion of the staple crop for use in biofuels.

Somebody is obviously wrong. You can’t have demand and prices soaring at the same time that a global recession is taking place. Our solution is to follow the money — and bet on commodities. We think the next tidal wave of wealth pouring into commodities could be a real doozy.

Farmers are expected to plant less corn this year, which could mean higher continuing higher costs for consumers at the grocery store.